Resilience and Diplomacy: The Unyielding Spirit of Ukraine and Personal Endeavors

As the sandcastles of my youth stood defiant against the relentless waves at Boca Chica, so does the spirit of Ukraine persist against adversity. Our latest Have a Cup of Johanny episode reflects on the resilience required to protect what we cherish, whether it's a nation's sovereignty or the fruits of our own labor. By exploring the parallels between personal endeavors and the global stage, we uncover the importance of preserving our creations and the power of unwavering resolve.

Venturing beyond the battlefield, we examine how modern conflicts like that in Ukraine reshape the importance of diplomacy and question the effectiveness of military might. Without guests to interrupt the flow, this discussion delves into the intricacies of leadership, technology, and the potential shift toward diplomatic resolutions in an era where aggression is increasingly costly. Join us as we bridge the gap between the individual's desire for growth and the complexities of international relations, all while fostering a season of insightful growth and understanding.

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

Oh, we could, we could fly. Welcome to this new season of the Habit Cup of Jihani podcast. So I want to title this new season that I'm embarking on with I'm Growing, so this is going to be the season of growth and that's what I'm going to share with you throughout the season. So I thank you for coming over here and sitting with me and I hope you enjoy All right. So now let's talk about what's happening in Ukraine, and I'm going to do something similar as to what I did in the last episode.

Speaker 1: 0:40

And, as you know, I'm from the Dominican Republic and we used to go to Boca Chica quite a lot and I used to make some very crude looking sand castles Not my best work, but, you know, and as it was my older sister, she would come from swimming and come back to shore and try to take over my castle, which I created, and I put a lot of hard work and effort, you know, using the little plastic cups and putting one mound over the other to make it really, really high. And she would try to come in and say, well, this part is mine, and I'm like, no, it's not, I made the whole thing. You know, I put in all that work. I put in all the effort. No, you're not going to take that, even like the little quarter of it on the corner. No, this is a little similar to what we see happening in the Ukraine. Ukraine has this territory. This is their country. They are self governing, have enacted laws, they have their own freedom. You know, this is their castle, this is their country. They want to own it. They want to make the rules, the laws for it and live that way. And then here comes the big bad Russia and says, well, no, actually this little piece of it is mine and I need to control that piece. Oh, and then this other little piece is also mine. When I need to control it, oh, I know. By the way, you know what I think? This whole thing is actually mine and I should be the one controlling it because you, just you cannot. That's what's happening there.

Speaker 1: 2:26

So the people of Ukraine have said no, no, you don't get to just come from your own country and try to take this one Just because you feel like you want it, or you want to become bigger, or you want to amass more land or more people, to boss around, things of that nature. No, you don't get to do that. So we're going to fight back. Many people around the world are trying to help and give their support to Ukraine so that way they can feel safe again in their land, their country, and make their own decisions, just like how anyone would want to make their own decisions.

Speaker 1: 3:07

We have seen in the news the resiliency of the Ukrainian people quite a lot and how they have this dead fastness to stand for their truth and what they deem to be the right, their freedom. So and that's what you see a lot and you have seen at the beginning I believe the coverage now has waned a little bit. The Gaza humanitarian crisis is taking over a lot of the feed and remember, don't take that as if one thing is more important than the other. I just think that there's so many different things going on in the world that the media is going to go for what is more sensational and what can get more clicks or what can get more audience to tune in and watch. So that's why sometimes you see certain things kind of like evaporating per se from the news cycle, but the crisis is still there. Our short attention span have drawn a limit and now we're on to the next new thing.

Speaker 1: 4:16

But that's why it's so important to kind of stay tuned in and dive into things through a fresh lens, as opposed to the media lens, if one can avoid it, because sometimes everybody is going to throw in their little bias in there whenever they report things. I don't care what they say of how unbiased there may be. I remember I used to and I still do. Right, I still go through the percentages of the media and the ranking based on most bias to least bias and I try to stick with the least bias one, because I just don't want somebody inserting their opinion in there Loudly. My train of thought I want to be able to think freely. At the end of the day, we all human beings. Even when I tell you something through this podcast, I'm doing it through my filter of lived experience and that's going to, in turn, give it a bias. That is very Johnny-leaning and you may see that it's different from you and how you view the world, because your experiences are different than mine and one is not more valid than the other. It's just what it is right. We have different experiences, so yeah, so be aware of that and always seek out a different perspective so that way you can draw from the masses and really mold your own perception of things that are going on. So the latest developments right now and I'm going to we're going to Google together people. I'm in the United States Institute of Peaceorg and it is the super cool website, by the way, that I'm going to use a little bit more so that way I can find more things here. Ooh, listen to this.

Speaker 1: 6:00

Diplomacy may not be as dead as it seems. Dated January 9, 2024 by A US Mitchell PhD. All right, the Ukraine war has revealed some unexpected things about the nature of modern warfare that could profoundly reshape how states think about and practice diplomacy. The very attributes that make the war so terrible its brutality, intractability and immense expense in lives and treasure may also, paradoxically, lead states to attach renewed importance to diplomacy in the years ahead. Yes, yes, I don't understand why it takes what's happening in Ukraine, what's happening in Gaza, what's happening in all these other places for people to say you know what diplomacy is such a great thing? Diplomacy has always been a great thing and is one of those governmental powers that should be used the most, and the least power that should be used is force. Here we go. I'll keep reading.

Speaker 1: 7:10

The fighting in Ukraine suggests that military force is not at present a terribly effective instrument for achieving political outcomes. No, sherlock, as a 19th century Prussian strategist, karl von Klauswitz, famously observed, the ability to deliver such outcomes lies at the very heart of war's purpose. When states can achieve their ends through decisive force, at a reasonable and tolerable cause, they are likely to favor war as an instrument of policy. When they cannot, they're more likely to consider other means to achieve their ends. I see, okay. But going back to Ukraine, russian leaders and even some senior US officials appear to have believed that the war would be short, yes, sharp and decisive in Russia's favor. But that hasn't been the case. Damn right, it hasn't been the case. Yes, despite possessing superior number of firepower and significantly larger population and industrial base, russia has so far been unable to impose its will on Ukraine.

Speaker 1: 8:16

You know what? Once again, I'm not the smartest person when it comes to this, but I think, really, that it was the Ukraine's president's leadership that really brought his country, his entire country, to follow him. I mean, here is this person that was like no, I'm not going to go high, I'm going to lead my people to fight back, because our win is just as important to me as it is to them. You see what I'm saying. So this right here, this is like shoot what you see in those movies of knighthood that the West society puts in movies in Hollywood quite a lot and then something that we have been taught that this is good, that this is great. I would say it was the president's leadership that really change the outcome. Because, yes, at the beginning, when all of this happened, right, we all was like for sure, you know, russia will overpower this small country.

Speaker 1: 9:25

When you look at it, when you look at it in paper, everything makes sense as to why it would unfold in that manner, but it didn't. And I think the key to this is the leadership that Ukraine has. That is vastly different from the one in Russia, and in Ukraine you have people that look up. As far as I know, right, I mean, I'm just an outsider when it comes to all these things happening, because I'm not there and I haven't studied this at length People get degrees when it comes to this kind of stuff, right, I just read books here and there so that way I can learn more. When you actually dig deeper, you note that difference, and then to me that's what stands out. And I think that's why the tables turned when it comes to this conflict and why the tables turned in favor of Ukraine, Just because that president was able to motivate and influence his population to follow him and fight back for their freedom. And when I just said that, I just kind of like envisioned somebody throwing up a sword and going follow me, take the hill.

Speaker 1: 10:40

And the article goes on to say well, it's too early to draw sweeping conclusions, just like I did. I told you I'm not an expert in this. It certainly seems that the defensive has the upper hand on this modern battlefield. And let me see what they say. They probably have like a completely different opinion than me. Okay, so they say that this may have to do partly with Ukraine's geography, which complicates wide-scale offensives. There you go, right, of course, they're going to know they're a territory, their land features way better than an outsider, and that always goes in favor, right, when you fight on your home turf. But, as a number of military analysts have observed, it may also have to do with the nature of current military technologies which, by easing the identification and targeting of attackers, tend to penalize movement on the modern battlefield. Okay, oh, look, and this right here. See political scientists, see these people, this, all that they do, that they know.

Speaker 1: 11:39

Political scientists have long observed the positive correlation between the primacy of the offensive and the likelihood of conflict. As MIT political scientist Stephen Van Evera put it memorably war is more likely when conquest is easy. Ah, you see what we talked about. The 19th century Prussian strategist said the same thing that if we know it's easy, we're gonna go for force as opposed to diplomacy. When we know it's hard, we're gonna go for diplomacy. But I think that has backfired right. The course of the war to date suggests that countries inclined to attack their neighbors will, as a matter of prudence, have to think at least as hard about how they plan to end and exit a conflict as they do about how to start one. You have to have an exit strategy, yes.

Speaker 1: 12:31

Second, and relatedly, the war's progress today cast doubts on the potential of nuclear weapons to help aggressors out of this predicament. Despite possessing the largest destructive arsenal in the world and famously devising strategies of nuclear escalations to win a war, russia has so far failed to translate its status as a nuclear power into an advantage in the war. And this is a good thing, folks. So far, russia's leaders have not found a convincing strategic benefit to utilizing a nuclear weapon against either a civilian or military target in Ukraine, and considering that the Russia state appears to be straining every other nerve to win the war, that's saying a lot. Even if Russia decides to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, it's not clear that doing so would change Ukraine's will to resist. That's right.

Speaker 1: 13:24

In this sense, the war supports a longstanding contention that nuclear weapons are poor instruments for coercion. There you go, say that thing loud In the late US economists and novel laureate Thomas Schelling's famous formulation. They lend themselves much more readily to deterrence than to compelence or using threats of force to coerce an opponent to change its behavior. Possessing nuclear weapons doesn't necessarily make their owner more likely to succeed in convincing a victim to surrender its sovereignty or, for that matter, stop a friendly unlooker from helping the victim. If aggressors can't easily achieve their objectives by conventional force and nuclear weapons don't provide much help in breaking through the resulting stalemate, then eventually they're likely to look to other means to achieve their ends.

Speaker 1: 14:20

You may be asking yourself okay, why does Russia want that piece of territory that is in Ukraine, or Ukraine itself why? Well, at least I'm asking myself that. So it's a little bit of everything and I will say that you really don't know, unless you're that leader, right, and you're the one going after that you understand what is either the main reason or the sole reason as to why. But there are certain things that may be tied into this decision of going after or having this interest in Ukraine. Some of it may be the historical ties and identity Ukraine and Russia. They have intertwined histories, they trace cultural and historical roots. Moscow often views Ukraine as part of its cultural and historical sphere. Then you have this is something that I'm more in tune with the strategic importance of it, which is Ukraine has a strategic value.

Speaker 1: 15:43

Let's look at the map here. All right, it's all about strategy, people. So map I'm googling it. I want to say it's mostly that, but once again, right, I'm not like a political science major or anything like that, but here it is. So I am in visualcapitalistcom and they have this amazing map explainer when it comes to Ukraine, and here you can see that they hold a significant strategic value because of where they're located Geographically in the map.

Speaker 1: 16:27

So basically, ukraine is the buffer between Russia and then the other countries, the other NATO countries there in Eastern Europe and that's big. But it also has other things tied to that motivating factor as to why they want Ukraine so bad, and it may be something that has to do with the things that Ukraine has the economic things If Russia takes over then they will have it such as coals, minerals, fertile land. That it's just. It makes it an attractive asset to have and it's energy transit routes as well. It will be crucial, right. It will be something that will be really good for gas exports into Europe and it's also power. You know, like, if they expand, if Russia expands into Eastern Europe, just like I said, right, the way that is placed on the map, that means that it's no buffer there between NATO and Russia. It's just Russia right there. They don't have that buffer of Ukraine. It's a big deal.

Speaker 1: 17:46

Now, looking at this map, it really brings it all together that if they assert that control over Ukraine, it's Russia projecting power in that region and globally as well, which is a big deal, folks. And, like I said, you can go to visualcapitalistcom map explainer. Ukraine, and right here they have all of that the conflict zone, they have agricultural land, the natural gas transit through Ukraine that, remember, if they have it Boom. They're in there like swimwear and, like I said, despite the challenges Ukraine and the Ukrainian people have gone through thus far, the resiliency has shined through it all and you may have seen in the news and in social media the stories of hope, perseverance and community support. That really paints a picture of that.

Speaker 1: 18:53

On yielding, we are not giving up spirit of the Ukrainian people and they're supporting one another and defending their sovereignty, their right to be there, their right to have other countries, their own laws, their own regulations and so forth. But what does the future hold for them? I mean, I wish I had a crystal ball right, but we don't really know. But hopefully it's a resolution towards peace and stability that hopefully we get there through more diplomatic efforts and internal reforms and international support from the international community. But it is clear and, like I said at the beginning of this episode, don't get confused because of the decreasing amount of headlines when it comes to Ukraine. Their journey is not over, it's far from it, and the road ahead it's just like the various conflicts around the world that is just filled with challenges. But the good thing is that the people there are still filled with that resiliency which really gives me hope that there's potential for a positive turnout when it comes to this.

Speaker 1: 20:08

But we can all play a part in supporting Ukraine quests for peace and prosperity, and we can do that through humanitarian aid, through support, through emphasizing what's going on there, and, while the news media may not keep them on the headline, we can continue to do so through our own small platforms, as small as they may be.

Speaker 1: 20:34

But thank you for joining me in this bit of a research excavation into Ukraine, and I hope you continue to dig deeper into these subjects that we have opened up together and you continue to evolve when it comes to the knowledge on these subjects and evolve when it comes to your opinion on these subjects, as well as identify new pieces of information, and you just filter it through your experiences so that way, you can come up with an objective, yet solely you opinion, and I'll leave you with that. See you on the next episode. Bye. Thank you so much for listening. I want to hear from you, leave me a comment, do a rating if you can on the podcast, share it with somebody you love, but, most importantly, come back. See you next time. Bye.